The Nordic countries are significant players in the global ocean economy, with strongholds in such sectors as ocean food, ocean transport, and ocean energy. As the ocean economy is expected to grow significantly in coming years – and since our citizens and economies depend on an effective and responsible utilization of marine resources – the ability to anticipate future trends and developments is a considerable benefit. By understanding possible scenarios for the future of the ocean economy in the Nordic region, Nordic Innovation and other actors will be able to tailor activities in a way that achieves maximum impact.
Background
The Nordic blue economy seeks to contribute to delivering on the promises of the EU Green Deal, both by meeting targets for renewable energy, for transforming the food system towards more sustainable seafood, and by protecting and restoring marine ecosystems. However, these objectives are challenging to simultaneously reach, while at the same time staying competitive.
As small, open economies dependent on collaboration, it is therefore relevant to understand how the Nordic ocean economy can contribute to safeguard and strengthen their competitiveness. We propose this by diving deeper into the trends and forces that shape the Nordic ocean economy, and provide foresight on the barriers, risks and opportunities that lie ahead for a sustainable blue economy in the Nordics.
To ensure long-term delivery of ecosystem services and to support biodiversity, the Nordic blue economy must also take environmental sustainability into account. For growth in the ocean economy, it is imperative that impact on nature and ecosystems is limited. The Nordics see a high diversity in marine ecosystems, from the Baltic Sea with a low salinity gradient and high euthrophication, to the North Atlantic and Polar regions with more pristine ecosystems still under threat from rising sea water temperatures and depletion of several fish stocks.
An ecosystem-based approach is therefore critically important to understand the interconnectedness (and interdependency) of different structural components of the natural ecosystem, the pressures, drivers of change and human activities, this being a basis for achieving global sustainability objectives and for building reliable and robust development scenarios for marine economies.
The objective of the project is to visualize how the Nordic ocean economy is likely to develop to 2050, by:
1) exploring the future development of the industrial sectors of the Nordic ocean economy, by creating plausible future scenarios, and
2) identifying potential opportunities and barriers to the adoption of strategies for blue growth and novel value chains in the Nordic ocean economy, as well as taking into account new scientific knowledge in marine policy making.
Importantly, this shall be done by providing plausible narratives for future developments, with scenarios that take future uncertainty into consideration. This will provide Nordic Innovation and other stakeholders with knowledge and insight to prepare for the future, and to create a foundation for future activities with the ocean-economy from 2025 and onwards.
Approach
The approach we will take to development and visualization of scenarios for the Nordic ocean economy is based on the consortium’s existing ocean economy and socio-ecological models, supported and validated by cross-Nordics stakeholder consultations through workshops and interviews. Model insights will be integrated to provide baseline forecasts, on which scenarios can be built for the most relevant pathways. Stakeholder consultations through roundtable discussions and interviews will ensure cross-Nordic involvement, inform scenario development, and contribute to scenario validation.
Project partners
DNV, DTU Aqua, and the SLU Aqua will utilise a novel, holistic approach to meeting this objective, building on broad ranging experiences from modelling of the ocean economy, marine ecosystems, and the broader food and energy systems.
DNV brings a 160-year long legacy of working in the ocean economy. They provide risk management and assurance services across the maritime and energy sectors, and are growing fast in other sectors, like aquaculture, supply chain sustainability, and biodiversity management.
DTU Aqua, National Institute of Aquatic Resources, carries out research, provides advice, educates, and contributes to innovation in sustainable exploitation and management of aquatic resources. SLU Aqua, Department of Aquatic Resources, focuses on fish and shellfish in the seas, lakes and rivers. They monitor and assess aquatic ecosystems, developing the methods and know-how for sustainable use of aquatic resources
SLU Aqua, Department of Aquatic Resources, focuses on fish and shellfish in the seas, lakes and rivers. They monitor and assess aquatic ecosystems, developing the methods and know-how for sustainable use of aquatic resources